🏀 NBA Draft Lottery Simulator

Probabilistic simulation engine · Monte Carlo analysis · CBA rule sets · Trade value calculator

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2019–Now
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2026 Draft Lottery Teams
Drawing results
Top-1 pick odds by team
Historical over/underperformance (2010–2026)

Expected #1 picks based on entry odds vs actual lottery results.

Does tanking work? Simulation verdict
+2.1
Pick positions gained (worst vs 5th seed, avg)
14%
Chance worst team gets #1 (2019 era)
3.2×
Better #1 odds vs 8th seed
Verdict: Tanking provides a statistically meaningful but not deterministic advantage. The 2019 CBA reform reduced the worst team's top-pick odds from 25% to 14%, cutting tanking incentive by ~44%. Expected pick improvement from tanking is real but modest — and comes with roster development costs that often outweigh the draft benefit over a multi-year window.
Lottery reform impact on competitive parity
Draft pick trade value calculator

Compare expected lottery value of two teams' picks based on current odds and simulated outcomes.

CBA lottery rule sets

2019 Reform (Current)

Top-3 odds: 14/14/14% for three worst teams. Flattened odds to discourage tanking. Still in effect today.

Pre-2019 Classic

Worst team: 25% chance at #1. Heavy incentive to lose. Drove the "Process" tanking era in Philadelphia.

1985 Inaugural

Pure equal-odds lottery. No weighting by record. Every non-playoff team had an identical shot.

What-if: Pure Tank

Hypothetical: worst team gets 50% top-pick odds. Extreme tanking incentive scenario for analysis.

Pick #1 probability by lottery seed — era comparison